6/28/18: NEC & SGE w/ Lucia Foster

  • 28 Jun 2018
  • 12:00 PM - 1:30 PM
  • Chinatown Garden Restaurant 618 H St NW Washington DC


  • Members of SGE, NABE and certain other groups
  • This category of registration is for our larger institutional members only for registration. Regular members of NEC please use the MEMBER category to register.
  • Registrant is a current member of the NEC.
  • Current Students with ID at the door

Registration is closed

Lucia Foster

Chief of Center for Economic Studies, Chief Economist

United States Census Bureau

"Business-Level Expectations and Uncertainty"

Dr. Foster will be speaking on a recent paper she co-authored entitled "Business-Level Expectations and Uncertainty".  The Census Bureau’s 2015 Management and Organizational Practices Survey collected innovative 5-bin data on own future outcomes and probabilities for shipments, employment, capital and materials expenditures at 35,000 manufacturing plants. About 85% of plants provide logically sensible responses to the 5-bin questions, suggesting that most managers can form and express (subjective) probability distributions. The other 15% of plants have lower productivity, employment, wages, managerial education, structured management scores, and multinational ownership. First and second moments of plant-level subjective probability distributions covary strongly with first and second moments, respectively, of historical outcomes, suggesting that our subjective expectations data are well founded. Finally, the plant-level subjective uncertainty measures correlate positively with realized stock-return volatility, option-implied volatility and analyst disagreement about future earnings for the plant’s parent firm and for the median publicly listed firm in the plant’s industry.

Lucia Foster is the Chief Economist and Chief of the Center for Economic Studies at the US Census Bureau, having previously served as the Director of Research and Senior Economist there. She received her PhD in Economics from the University of Maryland in College Park.  Her research interests include productivity, job and employment flows, innovation and technological change and management practices.

Note:  Registration is open through Wednesday, 6-27-18.  

Press:  Please email :manager@national-economists.org with your attendance status and the date of attendance. It will be assumed that lunch is NOT requested.   If lunch is requested, please contact me in advance, prior to the date of the event, for registration and payment instructions.

Credit Card payment is non refundable but you may substitute someone in your place for attendance.